AEMPS

The Behaviour of Gold Prices During Periods of Economic Uncertainty

Author

Yaxuan Shen * 1

1 Harrow International School Beijing

Corresponding Author

Yaxuan Shen

Keywords

Gold Prices, Economic Uncertainty, Risk Sentiment, Safe-Haven Assets, Financial Markets

Abstract

Gold is generally regarded as a safe-haven asset, but its price behavior differs in the different phases of a crisis. This paper investigates the co-movement of gold prices with economic policy uncertainty, market risk sentiment, and key financial market variables using monthly data from January 2006 to December 2025 and compares gold price performance during the 2008 global financial crisis and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic. Descriptive statistics, trend comparison and case analysis are used to investigate the variations of the Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (GEPU), VIX, the US Dollar Index, the US 10-year real interest rate and the S&P 500 Index. The analysis reveals that gold prices do not always move together with risk indicators. Gold might be under some pressure at first as the US dollar strengthens and liquidity pressures build up in the early stages of a crisis, but gold prices may rise again as real interest rates fall and the financial market environment changes. Gold's function as a safe-haven asset was phased and conditional in both crises.

Citation

Yaxuan Shen. The Behaviour of Gold Prices During Periods of Economic Uncertainty. AEMPS (2026) Vol. 315: 145-151. DOI: 10.54254/2754-1169/2026.38931.

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